Saturday, May 1, 2010
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Dollar Climbs to Three Month High Versus the EUR
Dollar Climbs to Three Month High Versus the EUR
The Dollar once again made large gains against a basket of currencies during Thursday's trading, climbing to a new three month high. Fueling the appreciation of the dollar were fears of Greece defaulting on their sovereign debt as traders looked to avoid the euro. Analysts are also forecasting just when the Fed will initiate its tightening of U.S. monetary policy.
Today the dollar rose by more than 0.9% versus the euro to close at 1.4389, up from an opening price of 1.4522. Driving the change in the exchange rate was the downgrade of Greek sovereign debt by the rating agency, S&P. The firm also warned of potential future downgrades unless major changes to the fiscal status of the nation are undertaken. The downgrade of Greece is weighing on the EUR as traders are now looking at the U.S. economy in a better light relative to the European economy. This is also causing traders to reexamine the potential of the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. No change was made at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday; however, with the rally of the U.S. dollar, the Fed may reevaluate its decision at it next meeting.
Friday's trading will be highlighted with a glut of news events and economic data releases from the Euro-zone. The prime market mover will be the German Ifo Business Climate. The survey from manufactures, builders, and retailers is highly respected and shows a high correlation with the German economy. The indicator is s scheduled to be released at 4:00am GMT. The trend of the strengthening dollar may continue into today's trading day with the EUR/USD seeing a significant support level at 1.4270.
Today the dollar rose by more than 0.9% versus the euro to close at 1.4389, up from an opening price of 1.4522. Driving the change in the exchange rate was the downgrade of Greek sovereign debt by the rating agency, S&P. The firm also warned of potential future downgrades unless major changes to the fiscal status of the nation are undertaken. The downgrade of Greece is weighing on the EUR as traders are now looking at the U.S. economy in a better light relative to the European economy. This is also causing traders to reexamine the potential of the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. No change was made at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday; however, with the rally of the U.S. dollar, the Fed may reevaluate its decision at it next meeting.
Friday's trading will be highlighted with a glut of news events and economic data releases from the Euro-zone. The prime market mover will be the German Ifo Business Climate. The survey from manufactures, builders, and retailers is highly respected and shows a high correlation with the German economy. The indicator is s scheduled to be released at 4:00am GMT. The trend of the strengthening dollar may continue into today's trading day with the EUR/USD seeing a significant support level at 1.4270.
Dollar Makes Big Gains Following FED Statement
Dollar Makes Big Gains Following FED Statement
The USD got another boost Wednesday evening after the Federal Reserve Bank (FED) issued a statement saying that there are definite signs that the American economy is on its way to recovery. While the FED stopped short of raising record low interest rates, the positive statement was enough to boost the Dollar against both the EUR and Yen.
Going into trading today, Dollar levels will most likely be effected by this weeks U.S. unemployment claims, set to be released at 13:30 GMT. With most analysts predicting a number around 465K, the news should be good for the greenback, as it would be relatively unchanged from last week's figure. That being said, if the figure unexpectedly jumps and lands at around the 500K level, investors may lose faith in the pace of the American recovery. This may lead to a decline in the USD, and would result in positive gains for the EUR.
Going into trading today, Dollar levels will most likely be effected by this weeks U.S. unemployment claims, set to be released at 13:30 GMT. With most analysts predicting a number around 465K, the news should be good for the greenback, as it would be relatively unchanged from last week's figure. That being said, if the figure unexpectedly jumps and lands at around the 500K level, investors may lose faith in the pace of the American recovery. This may lead to a decline in the USD, and would result in positive gains for the EUR.
Dollar Trades Higher vs. EUR on Rate Outlook
Dollar Trades Higher vs. EUR on Rate Outlook
The U.S dollar held near a 2-½ month high on the EUR and kept a firmer footing against the Japanese yen on Wednesday as the market waited to see if the U.S. Federal Reserve would give any signal on when Interest Rates might begin to rise.
The greenback was near a 1-week high against the Yen before reports forecast to show U.S. housing starts rebounded and consumer prices gained. Traders increased bets that the Fed will raise its policy rate by June as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began a 2 day rate-setting meeting.
The U.S dollar traded at $1.4542 per EUR from $1.4538 yesterday when it reached $1.4504, the strongest level since Oct. 2nd. The U.S. currency was at 89.58 yen from 89.61 yesterday after reaching 89.95, the strongest level since Dec. 7th.
Fed policy makers are expected to keep benchmark rates steady and retain the vast majority of the forward-looking portions of its statement on the economy due this afternoon. With data pointing to the upside in the U.S. economy, there is a growing speculation that there will be a change in rhetoric on monetary easing. Analysts said investors were keen to close short positions built up in the Dollar all year before 2009 book closings and that this may support the USD for the rest of the week and into next.
The greenback was near a 1-week high against the Yen before reports forecast to show U.S. housing starts rebounded and consumer prices gained. Traders increased bets that the Fed will raise its policy rate by June as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began a 2 day rate-setting meeting.
The U.S dollar traded at $1.4542 per EUR from $1.4538 yesterday when it reached $1.4504, the strongest level since Oct. 2nd. The U.S. currency was at 89.58 yen from 89.61 yesterday after reaching 89.95, the strongest level since Dec. 7th.
Fed policy makers are expected to keep benchmark rates steady and retain the vast majority of the forward-looking portions of its statement on the economy due this afternoon. With data pointing to the upside in the U.S. economy, there is a growing speculation that there will be a change in rhetoric on monetary easing. Analysts said investors were keen to close short positions built up in the Dollar all year before 2009 book closings and that this may support the USD for the rest of the week and into next.
Dollar Falls on Dubai Bailout
Dollar Falls on Dubai Bailout
The dollar slipped slightly against most of its major counterparts on Monday after Dubai's announcement it had received help from Abu Dhabi to repay its debts. This bolstered risk appetite and eroded some of the U.S. currency's safe-haven appeal. By yesterday's close, the USD fell against the EUR, pushing the oft- traded currency pair to 1.4647. The dollar experience similar behavior against the GBP and closed at 1.6302.
The currency market's bent to sell dollars on improved risk appetite, contrasted with last week when strong U.S. economic data boosted risk sentiment to the benefit of stocks and the dollar, and have bolstered the view that the Fed may have to act sooner than expected to tighten monetary policy. Investors were also watching to see whether a year-long trend in which the dollar weakens on strong U.S. data was starting to break down.
Moreover, markets await more details from the Federal Reserve, which wraps up its last policy meeting of the year on Wednesday. Investors expect the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate at a historic low level of near zero for the time being, but there is some concern that rates could rise sooner than previously thought as the economy improves. Higher interest rates or the expectation of higher interest rates in the near future can boost a currency as investors transfer their funds to higher yielding currencies.
The currency market's bent to sell dollars on improved risk appetite, contrasted with last week when strong U.S. economic data boosted risk sentiment to the benefit of stocks and the dollar, and have bolstered the view that the Fed may have to act sooner than expected to tighten monetary policy. Investors were also watching to see whether a year-long trend in which the dollar weakens on strong U.S. data was starting to break down.
Moreover, markets await more details from the Federal Reserve, which wraps up its last policy meeting of the year on Wednesday. Investors expect the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate at a historic low level of near zero for the time being, but there is some concern that rates could rise sooner than previously thought as the economy improves. Higher interest rates or the expectation of higher interest rates in the near future can boost a currency as investors transfer their funds to higher yielding currencies.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
EUR vor EZB-Ratssitzung fester
EUR vor EZB-Ratssitzung fester
Der EUR stieg bereits im frühen heutigen Morgenhandel um 0,2% zum USD an. Diese Kursentwicklung zeichnet sich im Vorfeld des EZB-Ergebnisses der Ratssitzung zum Hauptrefinanzierungssatz im weiteren Tagesverlauf ab. Auch zum Yen zog der EUR etwas an und handelte hier mir +0,7% zum Vortag über der Marke von 132,50. Während die EZB ihre Leitzinssätze voraussichtlich vorerst unverändert belassen wird, spekulieren die Marktteilnehmer inzwischen über einen stufenweisen Abbau der außergewöhnlichen geldpolitischen Maßnahmen der Notenbank.
Gegenüber anderen Hauptwährungen wie dem Australischen Dollar, ergaben sich für die europäische Gemeinschaftswährung zu früher Morgenstunde Kursverluste. Dabei markierte der AUD bei über 1,6200 ein 8-tägiges Hoch gegen den EUR. Des Weiteren zog das Britische Pfund Sterling bereits im Mittwochhandel zum EUR an. Das Tagestief lag bei 90,36 Pence. Sollte die EZB ihre Niedrigzinspolitik wie erwartet fortführen, können Händler damit rechnen, dass der EUR-Abwärtstrend gegenüber risikoreichen Währungen anhalten wird.
Gegenüber anderen Hauptwährungen wie dem Australischen Dollar, ergaben sich für die europäische Gemeinschaftswährung zu früher Morgenstunde Kursverluste. Dabei markierte der AUD bei über 1,6200 ein 8-tägiges Hoch gegen den EUR. Des Weiteren zog das Britische Pfund Sterling bereits im Mittwochhandel zum EUR an. Das Tagestief lag bei 90,36 Pence. Sollte die EZB ihre Niedrigzinspolitik wie erwartet fortführen, können Händler damit rechnen, dass der EUR-Abwärtstrend gegenüber risikoreichen Währungen anhalten wird.
Oil Falls again Despite a Weak Dollar
Oil Falls again Despite a Weak Dollar
Crude Oil continued its decline for the fourth consecutive trading session following Bernanke's speech and estimations for lower inflation and a weak U.S. economy. The price of Crude ended the day down at $74.14 after an opening price of $75.60. This was a price drop of almost 2%. Today's weaker dollar may have helped to lessen the price drop in Crude.
The price may have also been influenced by weak fundamentals in the Crude Oil market. There may still be an excess amount of supply in the market that has yet to be reduced with lower demand due to the slowing global economy.
The positive from yesterday may be in Bernanke's speech. As long as inflationary pressures are muted, the Fed will continue to hold Interest Rates low. This could be a positive factor for the price of Crude Oil. A higher Interest Rate would be dollar positive, thereby potentially pushing crude oil prices lower.
The price may have also been influenced by weak fundamentals in the Crude Oil market. There may still be an excess amount of supply in the market that has yet to be reduced with lower demand due to the slowing global economy.
The positive from yesterday may be in Bernanke's speech. As long as inflationary pressures are muted, the Fed will continue to hold Interest Rates low. This could be a positive factor for the price of Crude Oil. A higher Interest Rate would be dollar positive, thereby potentially pushing crude oil prices lower.
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