Dollar Climbs to Three Month High Versus the EUR

The Dollar once again made large gains against a basket of currencies during Thursday's trading, climbing to a new three month high. Fueling the appreciation of the dollar were fears of Greece defaulting on their sovereign debt as traders looked to avoid the euro. Analysts are also forecasting just when the Fed will initiate its tightening of U.S. monetary policy.

Today the dollar rose by more than 0.9% versus the euro to close at 1.4389, up from an opening price of 1.4522. Driving the change in the exchange rate was the downgrade of Greek sovereign debt by the rating agency, S&P. The firm also warned of potential future downgrades unless major changes to the fiscal status of the nation are undertaken. The downgrade of Greece is weighing on the EUR as traders are now looking at the U.S. economy in a better light relative to the European economy. This is also causing traders to reexamine the potential of the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. No change was made at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday; however, with the rally of the U.S. dollar, the Fed may reevaluate its decision at it next meeting.

Friday's trading will be highlighted with a glut of news events and economic data releases from the Euro-zone. The prime market mover will be the German Ifo Business Climate. The survey from manufactures, builders, and retailers is highly respected and shows a high correlation with the German economy. The indicator is s scheduled to be released at 4:00am GMT. The trend of the strengthening dollar may continue into today's trading day with the EUR/USD seeing a significant support level at 1.4270.

Dollar Trades Higher vs. EUR on Rate Outlook

The U.S dollar held near a 2-½ month high on the EUR and kept a firmer footing against the Japanese yen on Wednesday as the market waited to see if the U.S. Federal Reserve would give any signal on when Interest Rates might begin to rise.

The greenback was near a 1-week high against the Yen before reports forecast to show U.S. housing starts rebounded and consumer prices gained. Traders increased bets that the Fed will raise its policy rate by June as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began a 2 day rate-setting meeting.

The U.S dollar traded at $1.4542 per EUR from $1.4538 yesterday when it reached $1.4504, the strongest level since Oct. 2nd. The U.S. currency was at 89.58 yen from 89.61 yesterday after reaching 89.95, the strongest level since Dec. 7th.

Fed policy makers are expected to keep benchmark rates steady and retain the vast majority of the forward-looking portions of its statement on the economy due this afternoon. With data pointing to the upside in the U.S. economy, there is a growing speculation that there will be a change in rhetoric on monetary easing. Analysts said investors were keen to close short positions built up in the Dollar all year before 2009 book closings and that this may support the USD for the rest of the week and into next.

EUR vor EZB-Ratssitzung fester

Der EUR stieg bereits im frühen heutigen Morgenhandel um 0,2% zum USD an. Diese Kursentwicklung zeichnet sich im Vorfeld des EZB-Ergebnisses der Ratssitzung zum Hauptrefinanzierungssatz im weiteren Tagesverlauf ab. Auch zum Yen zog der EUR etwas an und handelte hier mir +0,7% zum Vortag über der Marke von 132,50. Während die EZB ihre Leitzinssätze voraussichtlich vorerst unverändert belassen wird, spekulieren die Marktteilnehmer inzwischen über einen stufenweisen Abbau der außergewöhnlichen geldpolitischen Maßnahmen der Notenbank.

Gegenüber anderen Hauptwährungen wie dem Australischen Dollar, ergaben sich für die europäische Gemeinschaftswährung zu früher Morgenstunde Kursverluste. Dabei markierte der AUD bei über 1,6200 ein 8-tägiges Hoch gegen den EUR. Des Weiteren zog das Britische Pfund Sterling bereits im Mittwochhandel zum EUR an. Das Tagestief lag bei 90,36 Pence. Sollte die EZB ihre Niedrigzinspolitik wie erwartet fortführen, können Händler damit rechnen, dass der EUR-Abwärtstrend gegenüber risikoreichen Währungen anhalten wird.