Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Has the Yen's Bullish Trend Reached its End?

The Yen underwent a trend reversal during last week's trading session. The Yen dropped against all the major currencies, including the Dollar, the Euro and the Pound. The Yen saw its sharpest slide against the Pound as the GBP/JPY pair rose by 600 pips and is currently trading around the 148.30 level.

The Yen's downtrend came as a result of the negative Japanese economic data which was published last week. The Preliminary Industrial Production report for October rose by 0.5%, failing to reach expectations for a 2.5% rise. In addition, the Japanese Capital Spending report, which measures the change in the total value of new capital expenditures made by businesses for this year's third quarter, dropped by 24.8%. This has shown that the Japanese economy has yet to recover from the recession, and that recovery may take longer than expected. Also last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to leave Interest Rates at 0.10%, the lowest rates in the industrial world. This has also contributed to the weak Yen.

As for this week, a batch of data is expected from the Japanese economy. Nevertheless, traders are advised to follow the Core Machinery Orders report scheduled for Wednesday. This is a leading indicator of production, and if the end result will be negative as well, the Yen could be further weakened.

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